Two paper-trading systems. Different questions.
Crypto arena. Can language models beat buy-and-hold bitcoin? Three models and four fixed rules each start with $10,000 and submit one action an hour on the same market data.
Equity committee. Can a locked value rulebook run a US stock book on its own? It starts at $100,000, screens overnight, and buys once a month. Language models only advise.
Neither trades real money. Both publish the checks they would have to pass first.
Right now
both systems, at a glance
Crypto arena
NO-GO- stake
- $10,000 each
- traders
- 3 language models, 4 fixed rules
- models follow
- no set strategy
- decides
- hourly
- beat
- buy-and-hold bitcoin
- since
- 26 Jul 2026
Standings
cumulative return by cycle, net of costs
- buy and hold BTC + ETH
- buy and hold bitcoin
- claude haiku
- claude sonnet
- moving-average crossover
- gpt-4o
- random
SOL's recent price stabilization and proximity to break-even suggests reducing the short position to mitigate risk, while the market remains indecisive.
Equity committee
NO-GO- stake
- $100,000 book
- traders
- fixed rules, language models advise
- screens
- nightly, 2 of 6 stages
- proposes
- eve of the rebalance, all 6
- buys
- monthly, first trading day
- since
- 18 Jul 2026
Book value
repriced against the latest closes each night
- book
- buy-and-hold SPY
Verdict
what NO-GO means
Each system is graded against a fixed list of conditions, published on its own page: enough history to judge, a real margin over the benchmark, losses inside the limit, and a scheduler that ran when it was supposed to. A system that fails any one of them is marked NO-GO and keeps trading on paper. Nothing here upgrades itself automatically.